Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 72172.984976 76242.888945 80312.130472 84682.979907 89241.881780 93853.656830 98868.481904
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 65414.691423 71629.900286 78018.527129 85066.693568 92614.708346 100445.910970 109175.426121
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 60688.294577 68369.801049 76439.358544 85528.899335 95462.276903 105968.104733 117899.165810
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 56766.391200 65509.805244 74864.925639 85586.856745 97502.074587 110303.724088 125063.651804
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 54292.564709 63971.927306 74493.130598 86731.224151 100525.488717 115543.053851 133077.704443
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 51328.739715 61663.488398 73062.720307 86504.072627 101852.337811 118763.524945 138735.506414
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 49708.535015 60753.312424 73094.394511 87821.581627 104829.521048 123765.627564 146350.076149
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 47994.048936 59620.336840 72770.645366 88640.566062 107162.526353 127984.374988 153044.225776
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 46006.701212 58061.211850 71857.695106 88688.011145 108529.995826 131041.684678 158369.212508
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 44093.350103 56498.217140 70857.200120 88554.832374 109619.949956 133727.598560 163229.972422
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 43229.469588 56145.721208 71247.576778 90030.750333 112576.888251 138576.221998 170618.658524
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 42307.360906 55672.615168 71451.752230 91249.498823 115205.608051 143031.631663 177555.722648
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 41045.440097 54753.374323 71100.794443 91797.473992 117049.621823 146599.460182 183513.789905
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 39564.796582 53510.064517 70309.977099 91772.826456 118177.181798 149304.069911 188452.733769
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 38388.069144 52602.988084 69893.184959 92171.847057 119793.670909 152581.457857 194080.528874
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 37113.072642 51523.308775 69219.192256 92213.877996 120942.398481 155275.667228 199000.202088
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 36463.802598 51219.554205 69495.680812 93424.254815 123523.911132 159712.747892 206053.108993
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 35187.560269 50057.727775 68646.474883 93182.315016 124271.549349 161890.467001 210342.820984
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 34714.815473 49929.009041 69099.720822 94580.182002 127068.059778 166594.630963 217756.012590
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 34037.956246 49504.522364 69151.389337 95449.068824 129190.254888 170467.772478 224160.847625
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 33045.489298 48626.253564 68586.174189 95499.395703 130256.356042 173018.963719 228929.054354
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 32020.786845 47672.710661 67893.620422 95358.101143 131056.937293 175225.671988 233265.875796
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 31742.725766 47722.984976 68513.796313 96923.800748 134049.861135 180197.999239 241091.547576